It’s indeed interesting to note that despite the prominence of wildfires in recent headlines, the overall trend in U.S. wildfire frequency and severity has been decreasing since 2000.
This shift, as highlighted in the Triple-I Issues Brief, underscores the complexity of wildfire dynamics and the various factors at play.
DESPITE HIGH-PROFILE EVENTS, U.S. WILDFIRE SEVERITY, FREQUENCY HAVE BEEN DECLINING
The recent decline in wildfire activity could be attributed to a variety of factors, including efforts in wildfire management and prevention, changes in land use patterns, and natural weather patterns such as increased precipitation in some regions.
The drought-breaking rains and snows mentioned likely played a significant role in mitigating fire risk in certain areas like California.
However, it’s essential to remain vigilant and proactive in wildfire preparedness and management, as conditions can change rapidly.
The fact that a significant portion of the continental U.S. is still under some form of drought emphasizes the ongoing need for measures to prevent and respond to wildfires effectively.
Overall, while the recent decrease in wildfire frequency and severity is promising, continued efforts in wildfire research, prevention, and mitigation are crucial to address this ongoing natural hazard.
At the same time, Swiss Re reports that wildfire’s share of insured natural catastrophe losses has doubled over the past 30 years.
How can those trends be reconciled? At least part of the answer resides in population trends – specifically, growing numbers of people choosing to live in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), the zone between unoccupied and developed land, where structures and human activity intermingle with vegetative fuels.
Mitigation is necessary – but not sufficient
The improvements in frequency and severity are likely due to investments in mitigation. State and local authorities have invested heavily to mitigate the human causes of wildfire.
In addition, the federal Infrastructure and Jobs Act of 2021 included billions to support wildfire-risk reduction, homeowner investment in mitigation, and improved responsiveness to fires.
More recently, the Biden Administration announced $185 million for wildfire mitigation and resilience as part of the Investing in America Agenda, which should help continue the declines in frequency and severity.