Though wildfires have been all over the news lately, it is an interesting fact that the trend in both frequency and intensity of wildfires across the United States has actually been one of decline since 2000.
This turning of the trend, as noted in the Triple-I Issues Brief, does reflect nuances of wildfires and their various factors.
DESPITE HIGH-PROFILE EVENTS, U.S. WILDFIRE SEVERITY, FREQUENCY HAVE BEEN DECLINING
This could be the result of the combination of the effects of wildfire management and prevention efforts, land use pattern change, and natural variability in weather such as increase in rainfall in certain regions.
The drought-breaking rains and snows mentioned above have likely played an oversized role in mitigating fire risk in areas like California.
However, on issues of wildfires, preparedness and management need to be executed vigilantly since conditions change within very short periods.
The fact that a large part of the continental United States is still under some form of drought underscores the continuing need for effective prevention and response measures against wildfires.
While recent trends pointing to a decrease in wildfire frequency and severity are encouraging, continued research into wildfires and its prevention/mitigation is required to address this continuing natural hazard.
On the other hand, Swiss Re reports that wildfire’s share of insured natural catastrophe losses has doubled over the last 30 years.
How might those trends be reconciled? At least part of the answer lies in population trends – more specifically, increasing numbers of people opting to live in what is called the wildland-urban interface, or WUI, the zone of unoccupied and developed land where structures and human activities mix with vegetative fuels.
Mitigation is necessary – but not sufficient
Improvements in frequency and severity likely reflect investments in mitigation. State and local governments have invested significantly in the mitigation of human causes of wildfire.
Second, the 2021 federal Infrastructure and Jobs Act provided billions to reduce the risk from wildfires, incentivize homeowner investment in mitigation, and improve responsiveness after fires.
More recently, the Biden Administration announced $185 million for wildfire mitigation and resilience as part of the Investing in America Agenda, which should further the declines in frequency and severity.
The stats you’ve shared from the U.S. Fire Administration and the National Interagency Fire Center clearly spell out the trends of wildfires and their interaction with human activity and development in the Wildland-Urban Interface.
With nearly one-third of the U.S. population residing in WUI areas, communities and properties are highly exposed to wildfire risk. As more people move into these areas, so does the potential for human-caused ignitions, increasing the threat to lives and property.
One of the more striking things in the NIFC report is the difference between human-caused versus lightning-caused fires. While the human-caused ones are the bulk of the ignitions, they tend to be smaller in acres burned compared with those from lightning, which can then go on to become much bigger and more severe wildfires.
This difference in fire size could be part of what is driving the bigger drop in the number of fires than in acres burned.
Moreover, increasing residential development in areas prone to wildfires increases property loss. As homes and assets stretch further into the natural landscapes, so will the risk of wildfires, expanding into populated areas and causing losses that are indemnified.
These preceding insights underscore the need for holistic wildfire management strategies that range from wildfire prevention efforts through land use planning, community preparedness, and effective firefighting response.
The mitigation of wildfire impacts on lives and property, both in the WUI and beyond, depends on how well one addresses this complex interplay between human activity, development patterns, and natural fire regimes.
